Distinctly Catholic



For the third election in a row, Virginia is turning out to be much closer than the Democrats had hoped. Florida is going to be a nail biter: Are there enough votes in Broward County's remaining quarter of the vote that is still out to let Clinton catch Trump? Huge rural turnout in Michigan appears to have that state in play. It's gonna be a long night and I am going to put the computer away. See you in the morning. 

Florida, Florida, Florida


Looking at Florida county by county, Miami Dade is coming in strong for Clinton, and she is already garnering more votes there than Obama got in 2012, and only 80 percent of the vote is in yet. In Orange County, which includes Orlando, she is over performing Obama by 50,000 votes and has sixty percent of the county vote, compared to Obama's 58 percent. That's how you win a state: Increasing your margins at the margins. In Duval County, with almost all the vote in, Trump is running marginally behind Mitt Romney's totals from four years ago.

Live Blogging Tonight


It is early in the evening and already I am getting mixed signals. Exit polls indicate that the Latino vote in Florida is only up from 10 to 11 percent, but a GOTV expert on the ground told me that they expect Latino turnout to run 190 percent of the 2012 totals. It would be such sweet irony if Donald Trump were to lose his race because of Latino turnout. For years, Democrats have fretted about the fact that Latinos do not vote in the same ratio of white or black voters.

Links for 11/08/16


At Vox, Ezra Klein has one of the smartest pieces written about the election I have read all year. His diagnosis is that we have a real problem in America today, namely, that we have weak parties and strong partisanship. Specifically, the Republican Party has no control over whom it nominates, making the possibility of a demagogue real. 


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April 21-May 4, 2017