Last May, just before the special election to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Rep. John Murtha in PA-12, this was what the Cook Political Report had to say:
"Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters' attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP's advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th. With both candidates and party committees plus some outside groups likely to be up on air with full buys between now and the election, there will be far more dollars spent per vote on the PA-12 race than on the Senate or gubernatorial primaries.” [Cook Political Report, 4/27/10]
There are a lot of differences between a special election in one district and a nationwide midterm, but it is worth remembering this election eve that one of the foremost prognosticators in the land underestimated the effect of the Democratic Party's Get-Out-the-Vote effort.