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by Michael Sean Winters

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It is early in the evening and already I am getting mixed signals. Exit polls indicate that the Latino vote in Florida is only up from 10 to 11 percent, but a GOTV expert on the ground told me that they expect Latino turnout to run 190 percent of the 2012 totals. It would be such sweet irony if Donald Trump were to lose his race because of Latino turnout. For years, Democrats have fretted about the fact that Latinos do not vote in the same ratio of white or black voters. Trump said he started a movement, and maybe he did: A movement of Latinos to get registered, get to the polls, and defeat him.

White, non-college turnout appears to be down in Ohio and up in Michigan from both 2012 and 2008. Waiting to see how Pennsylvania turnout fares: Clinton needs about a half million vote margin coming out of the city of Philadelphia to offset Trump's strength in rural parts of the state. Trump will out-perform Romney in McCain in places like Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) and Clinton needs to out-perform Obama in the Philly suburbs.

No news yet on the Catholic vote. White evangelicals appear to be a smaller part of the electorate than in 2012. In fact, the percentage of white voters nationally is down.  


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