Cardinal Parolin's bid has 2 obstacles — China and Vatican finances

An example of Parolin's role as enforcer defending traditional church teaching has been seen in recent years in his response to the German Synodal Way. That yearslong series of meetings on church reform has advocated for more progressive stands in Germany on issues such as LGBTQ inclusion, women's ordination, and clerical celibacy.

Typically, the role of enforcer would fall to the Vatican's doctrinal office. But in the case of Germany, Parolin has stepped in. While Francis expressed his concerns that the process was out of sync with Rome, Parolin has been more forceful in his reminder that on homosexuality and women's ordination, the church's teachings are "nonnegotiable."

Two major issues, however, stalk his candidacy: China and Vatican finances.

Parolin was one of the primary architects of the Vatican's controversial agreement with China that was signed in 2018 — originally for two years and now twice extended. Parolin received accolades from those eager to cheerlead the accords, which allowed all of the bishops in China to be in communion with Rome for the first time in decades. It was Parolin who during the papacy of Benedict XVI first reestablished formal contact between the Vatican and Beijing.

While the contents of the 2018 agreement have been kept secret, it is broadly understood to give the Holy See final approval over the appointment of bishops in China after years of having no real control over Catholic leadership in the world's most populous country.

Critics, including former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, complain the secret pact seems to force the church to be silent on the country's aggressive and often violent crackdown against Catholics and people of other faiths.

In 2020, Parolin seemed to make a serious blunder when he insisted Chinese Catholics are "not persecuted," despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, prompting immediate pushback from advocates of Chinese Catholics.

One of Parolin's fiercest critics has been retired Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, a prominent conservative, who has lambasted the Vatican — and Parolin explicitly — as capitulating to China's human rights abuses.

While Zen, 93, no longer has a right to vote in a conclave because cardinals over the age of 80 are no longer electors, his voice and those concerns will likely still be present in the Sistine Chapel.

Conservative Catholic commentator George Weigel, who was unsparing in his criticism of Francis in his final years, has warned that the China question should "raise serious issues for those who imagine Cardinal Parolin as Pope Francis's successor."

On another front, those who enter this conclave with a long memory might also have flashbacks to the 2013 election of Francis, when the cardinals had identified reform of the Vatican's rapidly depleting financial patrimony as one of the key issues facing the new pope.

That project is far from complete and many questions still linger about the Vatican's ill-advised real estate investment in a London property that went belly-up, ultimately resulting in the loss of more than 200 million euros.

While a Vatican court ultimately convicted Sardinian Cardinal Angelo Becciu for his primary role in the debacle, the fact that Parolin was aware of and approved the transactions is likely to cast a shadow over his candidacy for those still concerned about financial reform.

Parolin was born in 1955 in the northern Italian region of the Veneto to the son of a hardware store manager and an elementary school teacher. Parolin's entire adult life has been spent in church governance, with no direct pastoral experience.

Following his graduation from the Pontifical Ecclesiastical Academy, the Vatican training school for diplomats, he served in Nigeria, Mexico and Venezuela, as well as a previous stint as the Vatican's undersecretary of state for relations with states. Along with his native Italian, the cardinal speaks English, French and Spanish.

Some diplomats who have worked with him and have spoken to the National Catholic Reporter on the condition of anonymity have complained that he can be indecisive and often lets files pile up on his desk, creating a backlog within the Curia and Vatican embassies around the world. Still, he is widely regarded as capable and competent when it comes to understanding the geopolitical sphere.

Inside the church, his long-standing service means that he will enter this conclave with immediate name recognition, giving him an advantage among a group of men who have not had the opportunity to get to know each other well. 

Now 70, Parolin was hospitalized for surgery on an enlarged prostate in 2020. Those who see him regularly comment that he often appears to be in frail health. Those conditions, combined with his gentle, reserved manner, might be viewed as just what the doctor ordered after a pope who dominated the spotlight but left his aides and even his allies exhausted at times.

After three non-Italian popes, there is strong desire among many Italians to see the papacy return to the country that has produced by far the most pontiffs — although that's a sentiment not widely shared beyond Italy. For an Italian to be elected, however, the Italian electors would need to be strongly united behind one candidate and vote as a solid bloc. Because Italian Cardinals Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Matteo Zuppi are also much-discussed candidates — and disagreement being a favorite Italian pastime — Italian unanimity seems unlikely.

But then again, diplomatic coups are always possible. In a deeply polarized church, the cardinals may look to one of its top ambassadors to broker a peace deal at home.